This Trend That Preceded Bitcoin’s 330% Growth in 2019 Forms Again
Ever since Bitcoin (BTC) started declining last July, falling as low as $6,400 by the middle of December, analysts have been wondering when bulls are going to step in and push cryptocurrencies higher once again.
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According to institutional investment data in the form of the Commitment of Traders Report for the CME, which has its own Bitcoin derivatives, the bull run may soon start again. Here’s more on that.
Asset Managers Dramatically Increase Bitcoin Longs
Prominent cryptocurrency trader Cantering Clark recently drew attention to a very bullish trend via his Twitter.
He noted that per Commitment of Traders data, there has been a “dramatic increase in long positions” held by traders deemed “Asset Managers.” In fact, Cantering Clark said that this metric is now the highest its been since July.
While some may see this as a sign that asset managers are getting too bullish too fast, the trader noted that this is a “similar pattern to what we saw in early 2019,” with longs suddenly surging from under 100 BTC to over 300 BTC.
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Similar pattern to what we saw in early 2019.
Commitment of Traders Report for the CME.
Dramatic increase in longs by Asset Managers.
Highest since July. These are not "fast money"$BTC pic.twitter.com/RviHA4W9ZW
— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) January 11, 2020
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Although Cantering Clark didn’t take a concrete stance on what this means for the Bitcoin market, a very similar surge in asset manager long positions on the CME’s futures contracts took place on the week (early-April 2019) Bitcoin began a 330% rally to $14,000.
Related Reading: Elon Musk Just Dropped the Bitcoin Bomb On Twitter, Again
Not the Only Bullish Sign
That’s not the only signal that suggests the cryptocurrency market is about to burst higher once again.
Fundstrat Global Advisors, a top market strategy and sector research company based in New York, recently released its Crypto Outlook for 2020. While the firm didn’t release the entire report, it provided a tidbit of the research piece through Twitter.
Per that sneak peek, the firm believes there are three fundamental factors that will push Bitcoin higher by over 100% in the coming 12 months:
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In a few months, the so-called halving will take place, which is when the block reward of Bitcoin gets cut in half, effectively resulting in a 50% decrease in the inflation rate of the leading cryptocurrency. A price model created by pseudonymous quant PlanB, accurate to a 95% R squared when backtested, suggests BTC’s fair value will rise to $50,000 after the May 2020 halving.
Geopolitical risk may be a boon for Bitcoin. With the ongoing conflicts between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and Iran, and other spats taking place, BTC may begin to prove itself as a digital, non-sovereign store of value in these trying times.
The 2020 elections, the firm wrote, may help Bitcoin. This point was not expanded upon, though there are notably a few candidates who are more crypto-friendly than others, such as Andrew Yang.
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