Analyst: Bitcoin Price “Near Bull Market” as Long-Term Signals Remain Strong
For some reason or another, Bitcoin traders and investors have begun to fear the worst again. In fact, investors like hedge fund manager Mark Dow (who shorted the $20,000 BTC top of late-2017), have started to claim that the recent drop implies that the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of macro collapse.
Their thesis: the rally from $3,000 to $14,000 from December 2018 to June 2019 was just an “echo bubble” of the previous market cycle, not anything more.
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Despite these assertions, a leading on-chain analytics-centric analyst claims that the “bull run is near” as a number of metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term bull bias remains intact. Here’s more on that.
Bitcoin Long-Term Bias Still Long
Philip Swift, the founder of cryptocurrency analytics site LookIntoBitcoin, recently issued a 10-part thread, showing that Bitcoin’s price bias remains positive due to a confluence of factors.
Firstly, Swift quipped that the cryptocurrency is holding above its 350-day simple moving average; this is important as the price moving and holding above this moving average “has always indicated the start of Bitcoin bull markets.”
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THREAD: $BTC: On-chain and market cycle update
TL:DR – Bull market is close!
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) December 5, 2019
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Secondly, he noted that Bitcoin’s Network Momentum indicator, which tracks the movement of coins to determine the usage of the network, has begun to trend higher, bouncing off bear market levels. This is something often seen six to 10 weeks prior to the beginning of a bull market, Swift remarked.
And lastly, the Golden Ratio Multiplier, an equation that the analyst created to analyze the BTC price, implies that the cryptocurrency could see an explosive move to $12,000 to $13,000 by January of February. For some perspective, Bitcoin hitting $12,000, Swift’s low-end estimate, from current prices would require it to surge by some 65%, in three months’ time no less.
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The fundamentals are also leaning positive, a top venture capitalist working in the industry has argued.
Speaking to Bloomberg on Monday, Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart remarked that the fundamentals are leaning in favor of bulls.
One of Bogart’s first points conveyed to the Bloomberg audience is that Bitcoin remains a very useful network from a transactional standpoint, “processing $1 billion to $3 billion worth of transactions daily,” which is a far cry from when the cryptocurrency was deemed “a joke” just years ago.
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Next, he looked to the growth in and adoption of a number of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency fiat on-ramps into the industry, specifically looking to the growth in his firm’s portfolio companies Coinbase and Kraken as a way to back his point.
Lastly, Bogart drew attention to a survey that his company ran earlier this year that was focused on gaining insight into the American public’s thoughts on Bitcoin as an investment. The survey indicated that a near-majority of under-35s believes that Bitcoin is a good technological innovation, will be used in the future, and would consider purchasing BTC in the near future.
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